How we price a same-game parlay

Which number is a quote, and which is ours

The headline price on a same-game ticket is the price your sportsbook gave us for those exact legs, fetched live. It is never our multiplication of the leg prices — a book’s combo quote nearly always comes in short of its own legs multiplied, and printing that product would flatter the ticket.

The fair price beside it is the modelled one. No book publishes a market on "this player homers and his team wins", so nobody quoted it — which is why a same-game ticket shows no source next to fair, where a multi-game parlay names one — the sharp book’s logo, or Avg when the legs devigged off more than one.

Why a same-game price cannot be devigged

Everywhere else, we take a sharp book quoting both sides of a market and strip its margin out to get a true probability. A same-game combination has no other side to strip. So we build the estimate instead, and say so on the card.

How the estimate is built

1. 1

   Each leg gets its own fair probability

   Devigged from sharp books, exactly as it would be for a single bet in the feed.

2. 2

   Those probabilities are multiplied

   That is the answer if the legs were unrelated — which same-game legs are not.

3. 3

   The product is scaled by a "together factor"

   How much the legs pull on each other. It is read first from FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ own correlation figures for that combination — averaged, or the more cautious of the two when they disagree — and failing that from your own book’s combo-versus-singles pricing.

4. 4

   The correlation credit is trimmed, then capped

   Any factor that makes the parlay likelier is deliberately cut back before use, and the result can never come out likelier than the ticket’s least likely leg.

Why the edge is a range

The range is how far the together factor could be off. A ticket leaning hard on correlation gets a wide one, because there is more to be wrong about. Four things follow:

• ●The badge and the EV colour come from the low end. A ticket whose range straddles zero never wears a positive badge.
• ●A range straddling zero means "too close to call", not "a small edge". It has not been shown to be a good bet.
• ●"Also strong" chips only appear when a whole range clears zero — one tap makes that game your ticket, so a chip is a recommendation and a coin flip does not qualify. They are an automatic build’s runners-up, so pinning a game or swapping a leg leaves nothing to offer and the row goes.
• ●The suggested stake is sized off the middle of the range, not the low end. Fractional Kelly is already the discount for being unsure, and charging for the same doubt twice would shrink every same-game bet for nothing.

Reading "Same parlay, other books"

In same-game mode every row in that panel is a real quote from that book for the same combination, scored against the same fair range as your ticket. A book that will not price the combo simply has no row. Sharp books never appear: they are the yardstick the fair price is measured against, not somewhere to bet.

Quotes refresh on a timer, and the poll stops while the tab is hidden. Returning to a stale ticket re-quotes it — if you see Prices moved — this ticket has been re-quoted, read the new headline price before placing.

What same-game covers today

• ●Books. FanDuel, DraftKings, BetRivers, Novig and ProphetX while the mode is in beta. Your other same-game-capable books appear in the picker as Soon; a book with no same-game support at all does not appear.
• ●Leagues. MLB only for now. NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and WNBA are listed as Soon.
• ●Legs. Two to four, and at most one leg per market per player — so the Over and Under of one total, or two lines on the same player’s market, are refused.
• ●Plan. The Boost Builder is a Pro feature, enforced on the server. See Plans and what each one includes and the pricing page.

MLB-only is a scoping choice while the mode bakes, not a limit of the model — the pricing maths never reads the league at all.